Estimation of Parameters related to SFTSV (Severe Febrile Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Virus) Transmission of Sheep in Shandong, China

Teppei Hirata; Yoshiki Kinjyo; Yayumi Nishihira; Yoshihito Yonahara; Takeshi Miyagi; Tsutomu Omatsu; Yasushi Shiroma; Tetsuya Mizutani; Yasunori Nagata; Shiro tamaki

doi:doi:10.11648/j.sjph.20140203.16

Estimation of Parameters related to SFTSV (Severe Febrile Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Virus) Transmission of Sheep in Shandong, China

Teppei Hirata, Yoshiki Kinjyo, Yayumi Nishihira, Yoshihito Yonahara, Takeshi Miyagi, Tsutomu Omatsu, Yasushi Shiroma, Tetsuya Mizutani, Yasunori Nagata, Shiro tamaki

Published in Science Journal of Public Health (Volume 2, Issue 3)

Received: 30 March 2014 Accepted: 10 April 2014 Published: 30 April 2014

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Abstract

In this study, it has been carried out that estimation of mathematical models of SFTSV (severe febrile thrombocytopenia syndrome virus) transmission between sheep in Shandong, China. Data used in the system identification is obtained by observing the cohort group of sheep in Shandong Province, China by Chinese scientists. Observation of the cohort was carried out approximately every week, and it was measured that the number of SFTSV antibody positive animals. As a mathematical model, endemic SIR model was selected. System identification is performed using the solver function of the spreadsheet. The software and solver were Microsoft Excel2010 and GRG (Generalized Reduced Gradient) nonlinear method. After complemented of observed values with polynomial curve, logistic curve and the Gompertz curves, the system identification was conducted and initial values of parameters and initial value of variable were estimated. As the result of system identification, the value of basic reproduction indicating virus transmission was estimated as the value of 34-45. This system identification is included many estimation. However the result suggested that this disease has strong infectious force.

Published in	Science Journal of Public Health (Volume 2, Issue 3)
DOI	10.11648/j.sjph.20140203.16
Page(s)	177-181
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2014. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

SFTS, Severe Febrile Thrombocytopenia Syndrome, Sheep, Infectious Disease, Sir Model, Endemic Sir Model, Mathematical Model of Infectious Disease

References

[1]	Xue-Jie Yu, M.D., Ph.D., Mi-Fang Liang, M.D., Shou-Yin Zhang, Ph.D., Yan Liu, M.D., Jian-Dong Li, Ph.D., Yu-Lan Sun, M.D., Lihong Zhang, M.D., Quan-Fu Zhang, B.Sc., Vsevolod L. Popov, Ph.D., Chuan Li, B.Sc., Jing Qu, B.Sc., Qun Li, M.D., Yan-Ping Zhang, M.D., Rong Hai, M.D., Wei Wu, M.Sc., Qin Wang, Ph.D., Fa-Xian Zhan, Ph.D., Xian-Jun Wang, M.D., Biao Kan, Ph.D., Shi-Wen Wang, Ph.D., Kang-Lin Wan, Ph.D., Huai-Qi Jing, M.D., Jin-Xin Lu, M.D., Wen-Wu Yin, M.Ph., Hang Zhou, M.S, Xu-Hua Guan, Ph.D., Jia-Fa Liu, M.D., Zhen-Qiang Bi, Ph.D., Guo-Hua Liu, M.D., Jun Ren, M.D., Hua Wang, M.D., Zhuo Zhao, M.D., Jing-Dong Song, M.Sc., Jin-Rong He, B.Sc., Tao Wan, Ph.D., Jing-Shan Zhang, M.S., Xiu-Ping Fu, M.S., Li-Na Sun, Ph.D., Xiao-Ping Dong, Ph.D., Zi-Jian Feng, M.D., Wei-Zhong Yang, M.D., Tao Hong, M.D., Yu Zhang, M.D., David H. Walker, M.D., Yu Wang, M.D., Ph.D., and De-Xin Li, M.D., “Fever with Thrombocytopenia Associated with a Novel Bunyavirus in China”, The New England Journal of Medicine, 2011; 364:1523-1532
[2]	Adams, D.S., Klevjer, A.P., Carlson, J.L., McGuire, T.C., Gorham, J. R., Transmission and control of caprine arthritis–encephalitis virus. Am. J. Vet. Res. 44, 1670–1675,1983.
[3]	Cui F, Cao HX, Wang L, Zhang SF, Ding SJ, Yu XJ, Yu H., Clinical and epidemiological study on severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in Yiyuan County, Shandong Province, China, The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene, 2013 Mar;88(3):510-2
[4]	Yu X J, Liang M F, Zhang S Y, et al. Fever with thrombocytopenia associated with a novel bunyavirus in China. N Engl J Med, 2011,364: 1523–1532
[5]	Zhang Y Z, Zhou D J, Qin X C, et al. The ecology, genetic diversity, and phylogeny of Huaiyangshan virus in China. J Virol, 2012, 86: 2864–2868
[6]	ZHANG XiaoShuang, LIU Yan, ZHAO Li, LI Bing, YU Hao, WEN HongLing and YU Xue-Jie, An emerging hemorrhagic fever in China caused by a novel bunyavirus SFTSV, SCIENCE CHINA Life Sciences August 2013 Vol.56 No.8: 697–700
[7]	Guoyu Niu, Jiandong Li, Mifang Liang, Xiaolin Jiang, Mei Jiang, Haiying Yin, Zhidian Wang, Chuan Li, Quanfu Zhang, Cong Jin, Xianjun Wang, Shujun Ding, Zheng Xing, Shiwen Wang, Zhenqiang Bi, and Dexin Li, Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Virus among Domesticated Animals, China, Emerging Infectious Diseases Vol. 19, No. 5, May 2013 pp756-763
[8]	Kermack W. O. and A. G. McKendrick, “A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics,”Proc. Roy. Soc. of London. Series A, Vol. 115, No. 772 (Aug. 1, 1927), pp. 700-721

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APA Style

Teppei Hirata, Yoshiki Kinjyo, Yayumi Nishihira, Yoshihito Yonahara, Takeshi Miyagi, et al. (2014). Estimation of Parameters related to SFTSV (Severe Febrile Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Virus) Transmission of Sheep in Shandong, China. Science Journal of Public Health, 2(3), 177-181. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjph.20140203.16

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ACS Style

Teppei Hirata; Yoshiki Kinjyo; Yayumi Nishihira; Yoshihito Yonahara; Takeshi Miyagi, et al. Estimation of Parameters related to SFTSV (Severe Febrile Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Virus) Transmission of Sheep in Shandong, China. Sci. J. Public Health 2014, 2(3), 177-181. doi: 10.11648/j.sjph.20140203.16

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AMA Style

Teppei Hirata, Yoshiki Kinjyo, Yayumi Nishihira, Yoshihito Yonahara, Takeshi Miyagi, et al. Estimation of Parameters related to SFTSV (Severe Febrile Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Virus) Transmission of Sheep in Shandong, China. Sci J Public Health. 2014;2(3):177-181. doi: 10.11648/j.sjph.20140203.16

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@article{10.11648/j.sjph.20140203.16,
  author = {Teppei Hirata and Yoshiki Kinjyo and Yayumi Nishihira and Yoshihito Yonahara and Takeshi Miyagi and Tsutomu Omatsu and Yasushi Shiroma and Tetsuya Mizutani and Yasunori Nagata and Shiro tamaki},
  title = {Estimation of Parameters related to SFTSV (Severe Febrile Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Virus) Transmission of Sheep in Shandong, China},
  journal = {Science Journal of Public Health},
  volume = {2},
  number = {3},
  pages = {177-181},
  doi = {10.11648/j.sjph.20140203.16},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjph.20140203.16},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.sjph.20140203.16},
  abstract = {In this study, it has been carried out that estimation of mathematical models of SFTSV (severe febrile thrombocytopenia syndrome virus) transmission between sheep in Shandong, China. Data used in the system identification is obtained by observing the cohort group of sheep in Shandong Province, China by Chinese scientists. Observation of the cohort was carried out approximately every week, and it was measured that the number of SFTSV antibody positive animals. As a mathematical model, endemic SIR model was selected. System identification is performed using the solver function of the spreadsheet. The software and solver were Microsoft Excel2010 and GRG (Generalized Reduced Gradient) nonlinear method. After complemented of observed values with polynomial curve, logistic curve and the Gompertz curves, the system identification was conducted and initial values of parameters and initial value of variable were estimated. As the result of system identification, the value of basic reproduction indicating virus transmission was estimated as the value of 34-45. This system identification is included many estimation. However the result suggested that this disease has strong infectious force.},
 year = {2014}
}

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TY - JOUR
T1 - Estimation of Parameters related to SFTSV (Severe Febrile Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Virus) Transmission of Sheep in Shandong, China
AU - Teppei Hirata
AU - Yoshiki Kinjyo
AU - Yayumi Nishihira
AU - Yoshihito Yonahara
AU - Takeshi Miyagi
AU - Tsutomu Omatsu
AU - Yasushi Shiroma
AU - Tetsuya Mizutani
AU - Yasunori Nagata
AU - Shiro tamaki
Y1 - 2014/04/30
PY - 2014
N1 - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjph.20140203.16
DO - 10.11648/j.sjph.20140203.16
T2 - Science Journal of Public Health
JF - Science Journal of Public Health
JO - Science Journal of Public Health
SP - 177
EP - 181
PB - Science Publishing Group
SN - 2328-7950
UR - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjph.20140203.16
AB - In this study, it has been carried out that estimation of mathematical models of SFTSV (severe febrile thrombocytopenia syndrome virus) transmission between sheep in Shandong, China. Data used in the system identification is obtained by observing the cohort group of sheep in Shandong Province, China by Chinese scientists. Observation of the cohort was carried out approximately every week, and it was measured that the number of SFTSV antibody positive animals. As a mathematical model, endemic SIR model was selected. System identification is performed using the solver function of the spreadsheet. The software and solver were Microsoft Excel2010 and GRG (Generalized Reduced Gradient) nonlinear method. After complemented of observed values with polynomial curve, logistic curve and the Gompertz curves, the system identification was conducted and initial values of parameters and initial value of variable were estimated. As the result of system identification, the value of basic reproduction indicating virus transmission was estimated as the value of 34-45. This system identification is included many estimation. However the result suggested that this disease has strong infectious force.
VL - 2
IS - 3
ER -

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Author Information

Teppei Hirata

Department of Information Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of the Ryukyus, Nishihara town, Japan
Yoshiki Kinjyo

Department of Information Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of the Ryukyus, Nishihara town, Japan
Yayumi Nishihira

Department of Information Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of the Ryukyus, Nishihara town, Japan
Yoshihito Yonahara

Department of Information Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of the Ryukyus, Nishihara town, Japan
Takeshi Miyagi

Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of the Ryukyus, Nishihara town, Japan
Tsutomu Omatsu

Research and Education Center for Prevention of Global Infectious Disease of Animals, Faculty of Agriculture, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Fuchu, Japan
Yasushi Shiroma

Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of the Ryukyus, Nishihara town, Japan
Tetsuya Mizutani

Research and Education Center for Prevention of Global Infectious Disease of Animals, Faculty of Agriculture, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Fuchu, Japan
Yasunori Nagata

Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of the Ryukyus, Nishihara town, Japan
Shiro tamaki

Department of Information Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of the Ryukyus, Nishihara town, Japan

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APA Style

Teppei Hirata, Yoshiki Kinjyo, Yayumi Nishihira, Yoshihito Yonahara, Takeshi Miyagi, et al. (2014). Estimation of Parameters related to SFTSV (Severe Febrile Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Virus) Transmission of Sheep in Shandong, China. Science Journal of Public Health, 2(3), 177-181. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjph.20140203.16

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ACS Style

Teppei Hirata; Yoshiki Kinjyo; Yayumi Nishihira; Yoshihito Yonahara; Takeshi Miyagi, et al. Estimation of Parameters related to SFTSV (Severe Febrile Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Virus) Transmission of Sheep in Shandong, China. Sci. J. Public Health 2014, 2(3), 177-181. doi: 10.11648/j.sjph.20140203.16

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AMA Style

Teppei Hirata, Yoshiki Kinjyo, Yayumi Nishihira, Yoshihito Yonahara, Takeshi Miyagi, et al. Estimation of Parameters related to SFTSV (Severe Febrile Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Virus) Transmission of Sheep in Shandong, China. Sci J Public Health. 2014;2(3):177-181. doi: 10.11648/j.sjph.20140203.16

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@article{10.11648/j.sjph.20140203.16,
  author = {Teppei Hirata and Yoshiki Kinjyo and Yayumi Nishihira and Yoshihito Yonahara and Takeshi Miyagi and Tsutomu Omatsu and Yasushi Shiroma and Tetsuya Mizutani and Yasunori Nagata and Shiro tamaki},
  title = {Estimation of Parameters related to SFTSV (Severe Febrile Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Virus) Transmission of Sheep in Shandong, China},
  journal = {Science Journal of Public Health},
  volume = {2},
  number = {3},
  pages = {177-181},
  doi = {10.11648/j.sjph.20140203.16},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjph.20140203.16},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.sjph.20140203.16},
  abstract = {In this study, it has been carried out that estimation of mathematical models of SFTSV (severe febrile thrombocytopenia syndrome virus) transmission between sheep in Shandong, China. Data used in the system identification is obtained by observing the cohort group of sheep in Shandong Province, China by Chinese scientists. Observation of the cohort was carried out approximately every week, and it was measured that the number of SFTSV antibody positive animals. As a mathematical model, endemic SIR model was selected. System identification is performed using the solver function of the spreadsheet. The software and solver were Microsoft Excel2010 and GRG (Generalized Reduced Gradient) nonlinear method. After complemented of observed values with polynomial curve, logistic curve and the Gompertz curves, the system identification was conducted and initial values of parameters and initial value of variable were estimated. As the result of system identification, the value of basic reproduction indicating virus transmission was estimated as the value of 34-45. This system identification is included many estimation. However the result suggested that this disease has strong infectious force.},
 year = {2014}
}

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